People waiting for the expected 4.0% mortgage rate that has been talked about in both the press and by some public officials most likely will be disappointed. The demand for money will rise as the cost of the bailout, the stimulus package that was just passed, and the proposed new budget reaches record levels. The yield on the 10 year treasury index topped 3.0% today, and mortgage rates have increased to 5.0% with one point for high credit score (above 720) borrowers amid some of the worst economic news in recent history.
New weekly jobless claims rose to 667,000 and the total number of unemployed workers reached 5 million. The final fourth quarter GDP showed a drop of 6.2%, down from the initial estimate of 3.8%. Consumer spending dropped by 4.3% in the fourth quarter which is worse than the 3.8% drop in the third quarter. This is the first time that consumer spending has dropped by more than three percent in two consecutive quarters in the 62 year history of this index.
Home prices dropped an average of 18.5% from December 08 to December 07. Since 2006 they are down 27.6%. Fannie Mae expects home prices for 2009 to drop another 12% to 18%, which means prices will drop between 33% and 46% from the peak. Existing home sales fell 5.3% to an annual pace of 4.49 million units. Fannie Mae posted a $25.2 billion loss in the fourth quarter, bringing the annual loss to $58.7 billion.
In other news, the government took the first step toward nationalization of some banks with the government acquiring a 36% stake in Citigroup. Is Bank of America far behind?
A silver lining in all this economic turmoil is the price of real estate will probably stabilize by the end of the year. Even with the decline in values, real estate is still the best place to park money. Most people would be ecstatic if the value of their 401K had only dropped by 33%.
Guest Author Randy Kelly is a Mortgage Banker and Finance Author with Boulder West Financial Services. He can be reached on-line at http://www.boulderwest.com/.



